I now predict the whole suite will cost US$499. Updates from Final Cut Studio 2 and prior will be US$399. Updates from the new Final Cut Studio will be US$299.

We also predict that you’ll be able to update from the latest Final Cut Studio, and also bundle Logic Studio is for US$499.

As predicted this release only has a few minor updates and improvements – it’s certainly not a complete re-write. I think the engineers were just working on new concepts that they can easily port over to the new code (i.e a better marker system, iChat intergration, better Compressor workflows, etc.). Personally, I still think that the all new FCX is still in development and will come out either at the end of this year, or more likely, next year.

Time will tell of course – but the fact that Apple only released a very “unimpressive” update at a very reasonable price, despite all the time they’ve had between updates makes me think that the developers have been flat out working on other more exciting things…

Remember, we still haven’t seen Apple’s recent product purchase yet – storyboarding. You’d think that that chuck that into Final Cut Studio just for a laugh – but no, not yet. Again, I think they might be saving it for a massive Steve Jobs presentation where they showcase their new operating system, new hardware (i.e. amazingly powerful Macs with touch screens), new software (FCX, new iLife suite, new Logic Studio, etc.) and a whole new world of cloud computing and handy online purchases (i.e. purchase stock footage, sound effects and plugins directly from Final Cut).

Exciting times certainly lay ahead!

It’s not like Final Cut Pro all of a sudden has stopped working. It’s still a great tool, and can tackle most current workflows.

Sure it’s not perfect, and it needs a fair amount of improvement – but apart from a couple of reoccurring bugs, there’s nothing life threatening that needs to be done.

I’m all for FCS3 or FCX or whatever it’s going to be… But I’m also happy to wait a bit longer for Apple to make the impossible possible.

Be patient everyone! Magic takes time…

Given this, I think there’s still a good chance that Apple will announce FCX at the end of this year sometime around the time of Snow Leopard’s release, and also at the same time as new MacPro Towers hit centre stage.

However, given that’s what’s been happening in the world in terms of the financial crisis and also Apple’s recent prices reductions, I am going to retract my previous thoughts on the pricing of FCX and the upgrade path. I now predict that the whole package will be around US$599, with an upgrade from FCS2 priced at US$299, and an educational pricing of US$450.

Why the sudden change of heart? Well, I think Apple now has some serious competition in the prosumer world thanks to Avid’s recent pricing changes, and with software like Sony Vegas and Premiere getting much more advanced and cutting edge, Apple really need to step up and offer something new and at a cheaper price point.

Will this actually happen? I have no idea… But I like to think so, and so far the experts have been off, so maybe I’m actually onto something…!

Having said all this, I’m just guessing like everyone else.

I certainly don’t think Apple will “fall apart”. I think they’re getting bigger, stronger and smarter by the day. I’ve heard great things about Windows 7 – but I’m certainly not going to jump ship in the near future, simply because the Mac platform is just so fantastic for video editing with both Final Cut and Avid.

Keep the comments coming! And thanks for reading!

If Apple does not provide an upgrade offer from Final Cut Studio 2, I will be completely out of the MacPro market for good and move on to a NVIDIA Tesla Supercomputer and work with Adobe software only and 4 NVIDIA GPUs (the new ones coming out).

I’m a CUDA developer and OpenCL developer and also Blender user.

Apple has a history of announcing “The fastest MacPro ever” and then just a few months later, after someone in production has spent $26,000, they release “The fastest MacPro ever” with no upgrade options to Nehelem and of course DDR3 is outdated.

All my friends say that Apple’s “Hardware Blackmail” has a long history to it, but if they keep getting so arrogant as to not allow upgrades and choose full cost, then I am completely out of Apple.

If your prediction turns out to be true, Apple can go to you know where and I’m back on Windows 64-bit and I’ll move over to Logic Pro and Avid, and Autodesk software with Maya. They will have lost my faith for good as this would be the last straw and I will support Adobe and spread the Word about the Rotten Apple with a vengence, if this turns out to be true.

I have a history of support incidents in which I discussed it was unreasonable for Apple not to suggest to someone spending $26,000 on their Hardware and Software that it would be in the CONSUMER’s BEST INTEREST to wait a few months.

They may say it’s legal and “too bad” – but that will be a matter for the FTC to decide if they keep this up — just like they did for the iPhone original release and then price cut (and public pressure made them change). But nothing else is making them change.

If that prediction is true they will become the NEW PREDATORY COMPANY OF THE NEW MILLENNIUM (Microsoft being the former but is being more reasonable now).

I think the company will eventually fall apart w/o Steve Jobs, he balances shareholder interest with Consumer Loyalty – but if FCX will provide no credit for previous users, No Way in He’L will I support Apple after that.

I’m confident they’ll bring over a lot of the technology from Motion into Final Cut eventually meaning that you shouldn’t have to render if you apply a simple motion effect, add a drop shadow to text, etc. I’m also hopeful that you won’t loose renders for silly reasons. For example, if you drag an already rendered clip over the top of another layer, you won’t have to re-render it.

Personally, I think the whole render engine of Final Cut needs reviewing, and I’m hopeful that Apple is already on to it. Looking at the progress they’ve made with iMovie – I think we’ve got a lot to look forward to.

As for Blu-Ray support – I wouldn’t hold your breathe… But, hey! Lots of people think that it’s coming real soon… I doubt it though.

Thanks for reading and for your comments! It’s really appreciated!

Apple do not see the potential of South Africa and investing in Africa, NOKIA beat them to the online music store, and still not a word about Apple Itunes in South Africa.

Maybe at WWDC 09 there will be an announcement, read that Snow Leopard is on the agenda, also something about Juno!!! 09 06 1944 was D Day, and 09 06 2009 is 65 years!

Something or nothing TWT!!!

Justin

As for Microsoft not generating that amount of speculation – just look at Windows 7! It’s the talk of the town! More geeks and enthusiasts around the globe are definitely talking more about whether or not it will be better than Vista than about Final Cut Studio 3!

Apple already does communicate directly to a “select few” who are under extremely tight NDAs. They are in constant communication with 3rd party developers and large organisations that are using their products on a day-to-day basis. For everyone else – the “average” Final Cut users who only own a few licenses, but still use the product daily – I seriously doubt Apple will ever invite us into the “inner circle”. I mean – why should they? If we knew everything that was in development, there would no longer be any spin, speculation and masses of twitter discussions! Rest assured – Apple keep in contact with the people that they need to. If you’re one of the select few, then congratulations! If you’re not, don’t stress! Just like the rest of us, you’ll have to just assume that Apple are listening and doing their best to create an amazing product.

As for FCP supporting WMV – they’re are plenty of 3rd party application and QT codecs that will do this for you. Flip4Mac is one of the best:

http://www.telestream.net/flip4mac-wmv/overview.htm

Why isn’t this support native to Quicktime? Because of licensing issues, but also because WMV is in competition with QT. As you can run QT on Windows FOR FREE, Apple has no reason to support WMV.

Thanks again for your comments and feedback! I really appreciate it! Keep the discussions coming…!

All of this speculation makes me wonder, does Steve Jobs read any off this, the speculation and think to himself, what fools we are, wasting all this time, is it just me, but I cannot think that MS or windozy would generate this amount of speculation. It is all over the net, when the new laptop was launched there was photos “leaked” from China, and the photos were not even close to the new unibody.

If Apple really want to take this to the next level, why do they not do what JVC did, email registered owners and ask them what they want, the new JVC video camera shoots to sd cards and Quicktime. Apple have our details, and when we submit ideas. A coupon for a few $$$ sent our way to use at the istore. Only registered users of PRO-APPS ie FCS2 should qualify, s we are the power users who need the power of 64bit and googles of RAM.

I could use 2* 8gig Ram in my laptop, would make Compressor work better.

Also if I can use Windoz on my MBP why oh why can I not import .wmv files into
Final Cut Pro? 95% of the world uses windoz, and I am sure 95% of those use a pirate version of Premiere. To me this makes sense!!!
Cheers

I understand that there’s a hell of a lot of people in South Africa – but I doubt there would be a bit portion of the population with iPods and iPhones. Regardless – it’s a shame that Apple are not keeping you happy!

Phil – you bring up a very good point! What about Final Cut Express? My prediction, if all this comes true, is that Final Cut Express will be exactly the same as FCX, except the advanced colour correction and visual effects rooms will not be accessible. You’ll still be able to do basic grading in the cutting room however. There will also probably be some exporting limitations (i.e. maybe FCE will only support “consumer” formats).

Also, for those listening at home, make sure you have a look at this post on the DVi Forums:

http://bit.ly/XNiVT

Seems like Liza agrees that all of this is in the works as well! Will the predictions come true? Only time will tell…!

Phil

From my research it seems that Apple are really not much interested in investing in South Africa, here we are very much aboobe based with everyone having Premiere 6 or greater.

What is so amazing is that we have 45 million people living in South Africa. The same number of sheep live in New Zealand, a land of 11 million people, New Zealand has itunes, South Africa does not! Why?

The land that brought us Mandela, does not have itunes or any official Apple stores, only 2nd level stores, relying on imports via France, the future is bleak.

When I have finished my studies, I hope to move to the USA where I will be able to use my FCS 2 skills.

And thanks also for your comments Martin. I completely agree – keep in mind that although I don’t think they’ll offer an upgrade path, I still think they’ll keep the price low (i.e. AUD$1000, or approx USD$635). Although it’s still a lot of money, I’m betting it will be cheaper than the current Final Cut Studio package (which is just over a thousand Australian dollars). I predict that most people will purchase the new product, and millions more will pirate it. I still think that even without an upgrade path – they’ll still be bringing “high end software to the mass market”.

Keep the comments flowing! It’s great to hear what others think!

Thanks to EVERYONE for reading!

Yes, it is a pity that Apple are really not trying very hard to grow the brand, very few iphones were sold when released here in South Africa. Here Apple made the mistake of not being able to use the iphone as an external modem, any cheap cellphone can do that, also the iphone cost 1/3 the cost of a Macbook Pro, so buy a laptop or a brick!!!

I bought the laptop, when asked by the reseller of Apple products in South Africa, why I ordered then declined my iphone, I said until I can use the cellphone as a modem with my MacBookPro and have access to itunes then I will buy the iphone-referred here in South Africa as the “ibrick”.

Apple tend to loose the plot when it seems they are on the right track, the imovie 08 debacle as case in point.

The iphone as example, why does it not have 2 camera’s? A phone 1/10th the price has way more features as the ibrick!!!

I am so afraid that Apple will drop the ball with Final Cut Studio 3 or Extreme, I hope and pray they do not make it so expensive only major league players can afford it!! $10 000 is far too expensive– $1200 was a battle for me to afford!

Justin

Itunes is not available, and according to a source I have, it seems that with the downturn in the economy, this will be a long time in coming. Apple istores in South Africa, source all stock from London, and often there is a long delay in obtaining spares, and software.

Was told today 28 Feb at the istore in Durban, it could be as long as 3 months to get iwork 09 as a single user disk, was forced to buy 5user set.

Hardware for video editing, firewire drives in South Africa, not a huge market for such things, damn USB, and the infernal op-system windoze!!

USB market huge as South Africa has a love affair with aboobe premier!!!

What would be nice is to be able to purchase through the istore components you need, they import and you pick up when ggods arrives, Apple staff here not very keen to help.

WHen I had a problem with a disc, after waiting 2 months later, in the space of 3 hours and 5 phone calls I had the disc in my hand.

The feedback should be a followup email from Apple, just to let us know that the suggestions have been read!!!

Hoping for a much improved product later in the year!!!

Justin-Durban, South Africa

I don’t think this idea of a universal timeline is that uncommon. I’m sure that lots of people have thought about it even in the early days of non-linear editors. I know other companies have considered building this kind of software in the past – however, the sheer scale and complexity normally kills the projects before they even begin.

To be honest, I would be against the idea of merging Color and Final Cut IF they used the existing Final Cut interface. Yes – you could put some of the Color functionality into the filter architecture of Final Cut, and probably port some of the tools over as well – but I don’t think you could turn Final Cut into a professional level colour grading package in its current form. For that reason, I expect that Apple may bring some of the features from Color into Final Cut (in the short term), but they’ll keep Color separate (unless until my prediction of FCX comes to life).

Don’t get me wrong – I completely understand the amount of money and work it would take to build something like the proposed FCX. As you said, it would be a MAMMOTH undertaking. However, I think that Apple has the financial backing, technical knowledge, attitude and willingness to make the impossible, possible. If only for the fact that others would say that Apple CAN’T possibly achieve it – I’d bet that they would divert resources to the project just to prove everyone wrong – just to prove a point.

I think the lack of an upgrade path will important for Apple. It will create a clear line between Final Cut Studio (the old platform) and Final Cut Extreme (the brand new baby) – two very different products. They will also be able to generate a bit more money from the products (even though profits are clearly not as important in this case as getting more people on the Mac platform) – as most of the users who will purchase FCX will already be FCS users. I also predict that a lot of professional post houses who currently don’t have a FCS workstation in their workshop will purchase a system just to check it out. This product will also be a clean slate. The media and the online community will be all over it (just look at RED).

I still think this product is “around the corner” (i.e. in the next two years). I also don’t think Apple would completely rewrite Final Cut only to replace it shortly after with brand new infrastructure.

Apple are GENERALLY pretty clever. They’ve learnt from a lot of their mistakes. They’re also really good at developing a brand new, completely different product (i.e. iPod, iPhone, sexy laptops, etc.) and just “going for it”. I predict that because no one else thinks Apple is up for it – that they’ll gear up to surprise everyone.

I also don’t think anyone else will be up for creating this kind of system. Adobe have the skills and the technology – but it’s not a very Adobe thing to do. Avid and Autodesk certainly won’t even try it. And I really doubt that a start-up company will be able to pull this off…

But hey! At the end of the day, I could be oh, so wrong! Let’s just hope they fix some of the really minor and annoying bugs!

Once again, thanks for everyone who has taken the time to read this blog entry, and please, keep the comments coming!

I’ve been saying for years that it’s inevitable that things will move to a universal timeline model and usually get looks of disbelief. Even suggesting that it there are so many overlaps that it makes no sense to keep Color as a separate app and it should be integrated into FCP, I get reasons why it would be a really bad idea.

Long term, I think what you’re saying is absolutely the way things will go but don’t underestimate how much work this would be. It’s a mammoth undertaking and I don’t think it’s around the corner just yet. Maybe 4-5 years off. I’m not convinced about the open source hardware and lack of upgrade path though.

There’s no doubt that FCP is the most used app and is in most need of an overhaul. This year it will be 10 years old and technology has changed a great deal since it started life as a cross platform app at Macromedia. I’d expect to see a rewritten FCP7 this year before all the other pieces are in place. I also think that a much simplified single-user version of Final Cut Server will become the new media management hub of the studio package, though probably not this year.

I suspect that Apple will release this predicted update to the Final Cut Studio at the same time as releasing the new 64bit version of the OS, and also a new MacPro, probably called MacPro Extreme. Again, I have nothing to back this up (it’s purely guess work), but anyway! However, I do think that Apple will hold off, even if they’ve got a working product, until the world’s markets settle down a bit. No point releasing a product if no one is going to buy it! My prediction is towards the end of this year, start of next. I’m sure they’ll release minor updates to the existing FCS in the meantime – but I doubt they’ll do any major updates such as merging Shake capabilities into Motion.

I think optimised use of OpenCL and Grand Central is certainly in the works. However, I think rendering will actually become a new feature of Color! Obviously there will be more real-time playback capabilities across the whole range – but I expect rendering will never completely disappear.

I think Apple certainly have the talent pool – and to be honest, I think even if they didn’t have the right people, they would hunt them down and employ them. I have a feeling Apple is getting ready to let all guns rip, and try and get an even stronger hold on the video editing market across all levels from features to corporates to home videos.

One thing I would really love to see however is Avid-like analogue sounding audio shuttling, as opposed to Final Cut’s “digital jumping”! Surely that can’t be too hard to implement!

I think your predictions/wishes would make for an excellent software suite. I believe that in time your predictions will be spot on. I suspect the next FCS release will continue with the separate apps but as we move forward into real 64bit and mega amounts of system RAM it would make perfect sense to have all apps under the one roof accessed via “Rooms.”

I think Apple will deliver a much tighter integration between applications in the suite taking the FCP/STP timeline editing roundtrip further. I expect to see Color 2.0 with 100% FCP timeline compatibility and editing. I’d like Color 2.0 to be able to handle Live Type and Motion projects too. Integration will be the name of the game going forward…..I hope.

I expect fully optimised use of OpenCL and Grand Central in all apps for RT responsive workflows. Finally RT Colour grading and no render editing in Color and FCP respectively! I also expect a nodal RT compositor application to arrive too either as a standalone app or as part of a substantially upgraded Motion.

Apple’s target has got to be the likes of Autodesk now. With Snow Leopard and a modern Mac Pro there should be no reason why a Smoke, FFI and Lustre style workflow could not be delivered in FCS3. DO Apple still have the ambition and talent pool to bring it off? I guess we’ll find out soon enough…

I think Apple certainly listens to its users. However, it’s sometimes hard to tell, because seemingly simple problems take ages to get fixed (just look at Final Cut’s “General Error”). I’d say the main reason for that is due to the sheer quantity of feedback they receive. It must be almost impossible to process it all, and work out what’s actually worth pursuing given they’ve got so many agendas that’s aren’t always easily visible to the public.

I would assume – if they did go with the central hub idea, that all rooms would have a similar interface, and as I said, a universal timeline.

I’m sure iTunes will eventually make its way to South Africa.

Although I have no problem with the current log/transfer and log/capture system, I do think this whole process can be streamlined and improved upon. But to do this, Apple would need to almost start from the ground up again. Only time will tell if this actually happens.

The wizards idea is an interesting one. I can see it working in many situations, like you suggested. However, you can almost do that as it is, using a base sequence and Motion templates. Intelligent subtitling in Final Cut would be very handy however…

Once again, thanks for reading Justin! Feel free to post any other ideas that ooze their way up here!

All the rooms should be the same, like the idea of a central hub, with rooms off from the central hub.

Itunes is not available in South Africa, thus the idea of buying off itunes would not work. Lessons for the new version in the form of video should be included, to learn the basics.

An easier transcoding process, drop the confusion between log/transfer and log/capture.

Use wizards, this would allow for workflows that use the same style each and every week. A publisher type programme that would allow for user input and would allow for easy subtitling.

There are many more ideas floating around in the ooze that is my mind

Yes, the iTunes Plugin Store would be extremely handy. Lots of people have discussed this possibility ever since the iPhone Apps started becoming so popular. I know some 3rd party developers have been toying with the idea of building such a facility – however it really needs to be done by Apple to be truly accepted by users and developers. I’m not sure if Apple would really want to “bloat” iTunes that much though – so maybe they’ll introduce another application – the iStore Application, which is dedicated to software extensions (i.e. you can download FCX plugins, Apeture Addons, Garage Band Packs, Sound Effect Library’s etc.).

As for Blu-ray, even though Mr. Jobs didn’t completely rule support out – I still don’t think that Apple users will be seeing Blu-Ray drives in their computers. With solid-state drives getting bigger and cheaper, I think Apple will assume that user’s no longer need Blu-Ray for data storage, and as for Blu-Ray movies – well, unless Blu-Ray REALLY takes off in the next few months, I think Apple will assume, like a lot of people, that the technology is dead in the water. It will either be replaced by something better, or everything will move to online distribution.

Steve Jobs didn’t rule out Blu-ray support. He just said it was “a bag of hurt” with the current licensing system. That’s not to say it won’t come in the future.